Roger Federer's Crisis of Confidence

Roger Federer tosses away the racket he smashed in his loss to Novak Djokovic in Miami

The Gillette Company is currently running an advertisement in the US with its Terrific Threesome, Derek Jeter, Tiger Woods, and Roger Federer. In the spot, Jeter and Woods, both wearing "cool shoes," strut down a New York City street to the strains of the disco tune "Staying Alive." When they encounter Roger Federer decked out in silver high-heeled platform shoes with a gaudy gold chain around his neck, they give him looks of scorn. Federer just smiles back. The statement "Here's to Confidence," flashes on the screen.

The timing is unfortunate, to say the least. In fact, it is somewhat reminiscent of the American Express Company's "Where's Andy's Mojo?" ad campaign that self-destructed when Andy Roddick lost to a nobody in the first round of the U.S. Open in 2005. It's bad enough that Federer smashed his racket in frustration during his 3-set semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic at the ATP Masters Series event in Miami on April 3rd. Worse is the fact that, after taking a wild card into the ATP Masters Series event in Monte Carlo, he went out tamely in straight sets to his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in just the third round (April 17th). Last year, Federer was a finalist in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Rafael Nadal. A loss to Nadal is not an embarassment on any surface, but a loss to Stan Wawrinka? True, clay is Wawrinka's best surface, but Federer normally eats him for breakfast. The fact is, Roger Federer has not exactly looked confident in his last two matches.

To tell the truth, Federer's confidence has been almost as damaged as that smashed racket since his loss to Rafael Nadal in the final match of the Wimbledon Championship last year. He made a comeback to win his 13th Grand Slam title at the U.S. Open in September of 2008, but then melted down again against Nadal in the final of the Australian Open this year. So far, Federer has not won a title in 2009. It's early yet, of course, and Roger got a late start last year, too, before coming on strong in the later part of the year, but the clock is ticking. Will he equal or exceed Pete Sampras's record of 14 Grand Slam titles or stall out at a not-so-lucky 13? Federer will turn 28 in August, and most people don't win Grand Slam titles at that age.

It doesn't help that Federer, newly married to his longtime girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec, is expecting to become a father sometime soon. First-time parenthood has to be a major distraction, to say the least. But there seems to be more than that going on. For one thing, Rafael Nadal is at the peak of his powers at age 22, and 20-year-old Andy Murray is hotter than anyone except Nadal this year. (They have both won 3 titles so far this year, but Nadal got his 6th Grand Slam title in Melbourne in January.) Roger Federer appears to have slowed down a bit, which has affected the timing on his groundstrokes, causing many more unforced errors, and his serve is not as reliable as it once was. Against most players, he is still a dominating force, but the young guns, including 21-year old Novak Djokovic, the world's number three player, are a different challenge than they posed a couple of years ago.

As Federer plays on the downhill side of a magnificent career, there are definitely questions to be answered, questions that probably underlie his fragile confidence. Can he still win a Grand Slam title? Can he find a way to be effective against Nadal and Murray, who stand squarely in the path of his record-breaking, or at least record-tying ambitions? Is there a way for a prodigiously talented, yet aging player, to get better at a difficult time in his career? Can he find a coach who can really help him, and will he listen to that coach if he finds him?

The fans on the sidelines have their own answers to these questions of course. A string of wins is all Roger Federer needs to rebuild his confidence. But how to get those wins? My recipe for success would be improved fitness and more aggressive play. After a year and more of mononucleosis and a nagging back injury, Federer has to get into the best phsyical shape possible, which might include building up his shoulders, arms and legs, while still shaving off a little weight overall. He doesn't need to go around flexing his biceps for the crowd like Andy Murray, but it wouldn't hurt for the biceps to get a little bigger. Andy Roddick was sure that he could not lose weight and be effective, but his new coach, Larry Stefanki, showed him that wasn't the case.

In my opinion, a new coach and more aggressive play go hand in hand. Federer, who played his best seasons without a coach, is notoriously difficult to coach. Whoever takes on the job must be someone Federer respects and will listen to, who will encourage him in a net-rushing style of play that he knows is effective, but up until now has been unwilling to play consistently. Darren Cahill turned Roger down recently, for reasons of his own. John McEnroe has volunteered for the job, but doesn't seem like a good choice to me. If I were Roger Federer, I would be knocking on the door of someone like Boris Becker, one of his youthful idols. Big, strong, aggressive, tough minded, if Becker can't do a confidence transplant for Roger Federer, I don't know who can. He would certainly be my choice, if he is available and willing.

Will Roger Federer get his mojo (oops! confidence) back? The season is still young. We'll just have to wait and see.